Coronavirus: R rate decreasing in the South East, scientists say

The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine report weekly estimates of the R rate - the number of people it is estimated each person with coronavirus is spreading it to.

And whilst the government does publish these figures, Mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham, posts this on his Twitter feed each week.

The latest numbers, which are correct as of May 24, show that the scientists at LSHTM believe the R rate in the South East is 0.7, with a 90 per cent confident that the R is between 0.6 and 0.9. Left like this and with social distancing measures maintained at that level, the virus will eventually die out.

IMPORTANT: the latest regional R numbers published today by @cmmid_lshtm.

The South West stands out as the biggest cause for concern.

London, East Mids, Wales and Yorkshire also ⬆️ on last week.

I will continue to publish these stats every week until the Government does.

1/2 pic.twitter.com/pFbRh6FPYN

— Andy Burnham (@AndyBurnhamGM) June 4, 2020

Elsewhere, London's R is 0.8 (between 0.6 and 1), whilst the South West's is 1 (between 0.7 and 1.3). This means that the virus will sustain itself, but not accelerate. In fact, the South West is the only region of the UK where they are unsure of whether the expected change in daily cases will decrease.

Because of the five-day latency period in symptoms, the R rate reflected here will not show any effects from half term, or gatherings on beaches seen last weekend.